“The key to success in investments: using active correlation in financial markets”

Active correlation is an important concept in financial markets that helps investors make informed decisions regarding diversification, risk management, and finding new investment opportunities. When investors have an understanding and information about active correlation, they can select individual instruments in their investment portfolio based on how they interact with each other. In this article, we will simplify the concept of active correlation by providing examples that illustrate its practical application.

The significance of active correlation:

Active correlation allows us to understand how market instruments move in relation to each other. For example, if stocks and bonds negatively correlate when stock prices rise, bond prices usually decrease, and vice versa. The same applies to the U.S. dollar and commodities, where when the currency appreciates, the cost of commodities tends to fall. Of course, these dependencies manifest in the absence of other economic factors that could influence or distort the correlation, such as inflation. On the other hand, we also have a positive correlation when the prices of two different instruments move in the same direction, such as the price of gold and silver, the cost of oil and energy company stocks, or the price of stocks in the same sector. These correlations are essential as they help us assess how our portfolio may perform under different market conditions. If you have invested equally in instruments with a negative correlation, it is highly likely that the overall return of your portfolio will hover around the zero mark.

Diversification and risk reduction:

Active correlation is crucial for portfolio diversification. For example, if an investor holds a portfolio of stocks from different sectors like technology, healthcare, and consumer goods, the portfolio benefits from diversification as each sector behaves differently depending on market conditions. If one sector experiences a downturn, the others may remain stable or even perform well, reducing overall risk and minimizing significant losses on the portfolio, under equal other conditions.

Identifying systemic risks:

Understanding correlation and how it operates is particularly useful for identifying systemic risks. During a financial crisis, assets in different sectors usually exhibit a strongly positive correlation. For example, during the global financial crisis of 2008, stocks, bonds, and real estate were highly correlated, leading to a significant market downturn. Recognizing these correlations helps investors prepare for potential systemic risks and adjust their strategies. Another example is the Covid-19 pandemic, where the entire market initially experienced a significant decline, but for most companies, this decline was recovered within a year, while others like technology, digital services, healthcare, and pharmaceutical sectors recorded record profits, and sectors such as transportation, airlines, tourism and hotels, commercial office space, imports and exports between countries are still recovering even after three years. If you think about the behaviour of each individual in such a situation, it is relatively easy to predict which sectors will be winners and which will be losers.

Discovering investment opportunities:

Analyzing active correlation can reveal investment opportunities by identifying assets with low or negative correlation. For example, if an investor wants to diversify their portfolio beyond traditional assets, by analyzing the correlation between stocks and alternative investments like commodities or real estate investment trusts (REITs), they may discover that these alternative assets have a low correlation with stocks. This offers an opportunity for diversification and potential risk reduction.

Active correlation is a powerful tool that helps investors more effectively balance their portfolios. When you understand how different assets move in relation to each other, you can diversify your portfolios, manage risk, and discover new investment opportunities. For example, when we recognize the negative correlation between stocks and bonds, it suggests a strategy for a balanced portfolio, diversification, and risk reduction. By uncovering active correlation and applying it to investment decisions, investors can navigate the complexity of financial markets with greater confidence and achieve their financial goals.

The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial or investment advice. The content is based on our best knowledge and understanding at the time of writing and is subject to change without notice. Investing in financial markets involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. We recommend consulting with a qualified investment advisor or conducting independent research before making any investment decisions. Thracian Invest EAD is not liable for any financial losses or damages arising from the use of or reliance on the provided information..

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